2024 has been a significant year. A total solar eclipse, a once in a lifetime cicada event with both the 13-year and 17-year broods surfacing which hasn’t occurred since 1803, a planned return trip to the moon with NASA’s Artemis campaign (which has now been rescheduled for 2025), the summer Olympics and Paralympics AND it was a leap year!
And for all of us sky watchers, there are some other interesting occurrences this year. The Earth will gain a new “mini moon” for a short time. A newly discovered asteroid named 2024PT5 will temporarily be captured by Earth’s gravity and orbit our planet from September 29 to November 25. And the Leonid meteor shower is set to take place throughout the month of November, peaking on November 16. Plus, as most of you have been witnessing, the Northern Lights are spectacular this year due to the anticipated peak of Solar Cycle 25, the sun’s 11-year solar cycle which is expected to crest somewhere between late 2024 and early 2026.
But one of the most significant events that has happened this year is global elections. 2024 has been called THE year of elections. According to Reuters, voters in least 64 countries plus the European Union, representing about 49% of the world’s population, will vote/have voted for their leaders. With almost half of the world’s population voting in national elections, this year of elections is set to reshape global politics for years to come.*
As with many of the other elections around the world everyone is watching anxiously to see who will lead our country going forward. And as our presidential race heads into the final stretch, some people have asked if they should make any changes to their portfolio before the election. The short answer is probably not. Baird noted in the following post titled Elections and Your Money:
Historically, election years have been good for stocks. The average return during an election year since 1944 has been almost 11% which makes sense since politicians are trying to enact legislation to “grease the wheels” in order to get re-elected.
And no matter who wins the election, historically, stocks have been up 12 months after the election even if there is some short-term volatility right before or after the election. Thankfully the stock market is nonpartisan.
The economy, tax policy and corporate earnings will likely impact the market much more than the election itself. We will be following these areas closely over the coming months and years to let you know if/when any adjustments should be made to your investments. If you are one of our clients, you are already in a well-diversified portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance and stage in life, so you don’t need to worry about short term volatility caused by elections or other events. But we are always happy to discuss any of these topics further so that you can sleep well at night.
We hope you have a safe, healthy and blessed fall.
Jean, Kurt, Anders & Molly
* From Reuters, July 9, 2024